Tucson Realtors: Housing Market Stabilizing

From the Arizona Daily Star, January 10, 2008
By Christie Smythe

Tucson real estate executives and a national industry analyst said Wednesday that they expect the local market will start to improve either this year or in 2009.

"I think we've stabilized," said Judy Lowe, executive vice president of Realty Executives Southern Arizona, at the Tucson Association of Realtors annual forecast Wednesday. "Our inventory is shrinking. The phones are ringing more. The pent-up demand is there."

Lowe was part of a panel discussion at the event, held at the Sheraton Tucson Hotel & Suites, 5151 E. Grant Road. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, also spoke in a separate presentation.

Although Yun and the local industry panel provided some thoughts on the coming year, most of the event was not focused on the future. Rather, speakers spent considerable time criticizing media coverage of the slowdown and urging attendees to keep up their spirits.

"Lethargy is your enemy right now. You have to pick yourself up and start doing things," said Laura Mance, regional vice president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage.

Yun said media-fueled consumer anxiety has caused the real estate market to be slower than it should be given the job market, household wealth, relatively low mortgage rates and falling home prices.

U.S. homes sales fell by about 2 million from 2005 to 2007, Yun said. Meanwhile, the economy has added 4 million jobs, $700 billion in total wages and $8 trillion in household wealth since 2005, he said.

"This is the battle we're fighting, the consumer confidence battle," Yun said. "(The information) is implying that clearly there is excessive pessimism in the marketplace."

Yun said he expects Tucson to rebound from the slump with help from retiring baby boomers and the region's growing reputation as a recreation destination.

"Ten years from now, people will say, '2007, 2008, there was a great opportunity to enter the market then,' " Yun said.

What's in store for '08

The Tucson Association of Realtors 2008 forecast included a panel discussion in which local real estate industry leaders passed along a half-filled glass of water — their "crystal ball," as it was described — and provided their projections for the market in 2008. Here is what they had to say:

"I see a stabilizing market in '08 and a recovery market in '09. I think we've hit the bottom, but we're going to be trawling along the bottom for a while."
Laura Mance Regional vice president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

"I think we will see some price increase in 2008 — very slightly."
Judy Lowe Executive vice president of Realty Executives Southern Arizona and president of the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

"My feeling is, we're going to go sideways here for a while, and in the last half of '08, we're going to see a price tick-up."
Rosey Koberlein CEO of The Long Cos.

"There are going to be better agents out there to assist buyers. I think '08 is going to be great, and we're going to see an upturn by '08 to '09."
Kimberly Clifton Owner of Tierra Antigua Realty

By the numbers

6.5 million
Total homes sold in the U.S. in 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors.

11,427
Total homes sold through November in Tucson, according to the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

9 percent
Percent of U.S. homeowners with subprime loans, according to NAR.

< return to news