Tucson Region Pima Population Growth to Slow - Microscopically
From the Arizona Daily Star, December 6, 2007
By Tony Davis
- The mortgage meltdown won't stop our population growth.
- There's enough housing to handle growth for the next 1-2 years.
- People are moving here for reasons other than employment.
- A lot of them are bringing nest eggs with them.
- The slight growth downtick we will experience will be invisible.
Pima County's rate of population growth will slow in the next seven years, but so slightly – despite the housing downturn – "you won't even notice," says planner David Taylor.
Until at least 2015, annual growth rates will stay over 2 percent, where they've been for a decade-plus. Those are the latest forecasts from Taylor, of the Pima Association of Governments, and Marshall Vest, University of Arizona economic and business-research director.
"Tucson in really good years will grow 2.5 percent," Vest said. "In bad years, 2 percent."
The reasons: more retirees are moving here, along with people with "a heckuva lot more money," Vest said. "People are able to move here when they don't have a job, when they don't even need a job."
Some choose Tucson for second homes. The population is aging. All of that is allowing the population to grow even when the economic slowdown could bring a drop in total jobs, Vest said.
The newcomers will find housing – 8,100 vacant apartments are for rent and 9,200 homes are for sale, a 13-month supply, Taylor said.
If the forecast is wrong and they don't come, "It's going to be because people can't sell their homes in other parts of the country," Vest said.
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